Researchers develop shorefast sea ice prediction tool
Researchers with the University of Michigan are working on a three-year project to enhance short-term sea ice forecasting.
The university’s Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, CIGLR for short, is leading the project as they have done previous extensive research on ice predictions in the Great Lakes area.
Physical scientist Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome told the Nugget in an interview that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Arctic Research Program funded CIGLR “to develop a tool for Alaska on short term sea ice prediction to aid in the information of sea ice formation, particularly for those who rely on sea ice for hunting and transportation.”
Fujisaki-Manome and John McClure, a research engagement specialist at CIGLR, work with Nome’s Ukallaysaaq Okleasik with Northwest Planning to develop the prototype of the shore fast sea ice prediction tool for Nome and St. Lawrence Island, first.
The goal is to create a tool that would accurately forecast landfast ice with more detail than currently available. The forecast period would span between one and 10 days, with a refined resolution of areas between 1.5 to 5 km. An existing prediction tool is based on a state-of-art sea ice model and the plan is to refine it to use higher spatial resolution and incorporate impacts from tides.
Fujisaki-Manome said that the end product will be a short term sea ice prediction tool that will be disseminated from the website hosted at Michigan, and that will provide visual map distribution of sea ice from present to couple of days out.
The goal is that information is accessible, useful and usable for communities in Alaska, particularly those who use sea ice as resource for hunting and transportation, day by day, Fujisaki-Manome said.
The core driver of the project, McClure added, is to help improve the safety of Alaskan communities navigating near shore sea ice.
To that end, the researchers are planning a trip to Nome and St. Lawrence Island in the coming spring to work with knowledge bearers to better inform their project.
Fujisaki-Manome said a beta version of the tool has been developed and now, as they are in their second year of the three-year project, the community engagement comes into play. According to the project’s summary this project “will collaborate with Alaskan Communities to build co-design partnerships, conduct interviews, workshops, and/or surveys to better understand user needs and usability of the prediction tool, and better understand how sea ice coverage impacts Alaskan communities that depend on sea ice for hunting activities and transportation.”
NOAA funded the endeavor with a $378,000 grant and the project will end in July 2027.
The beta version of the tool can be found here: https://live-seas-alaska-sea-ice.pantheonsite.io/
The project website is here: https://globalocean.noaa.gov/project/co-designing-a-short-term-sea-ice-prediction-tool-for-alaskas-coasts-through-advancing-sea-ice-modeling-and-iterative-research-engagement/